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The 2020 Disney World crowd predictions are wrong!

This year, 2020, the crowds at Disney World have been nuts. From January 1, at least until now (February 17) crowds have been bigger than predicted. Much bigger. In some cases crazy bigger. What’s up? What’s wrong with the crowd predictions for 2020 Disney World crowds?

Here’s what’s wrong with the Disney World crowd predictions for 2020


Are cheerleaders why the 2020 Disney World crowd calendars are wrong?

Could it be the cheerleaders fault? – photo by Laurie Sapp

So you want to know what happened? What’s wrong? Why are the crowds so much bigger than predicted?


Pigment has some problems with Dad and his 2020 Disney World Crowd Calendars

Come on Dad. Tell us already!


Oh. Hi, Pigment. What were you saying?


Stop it. Stop playing these silly mind games and tell us what happened. Tell us what’s up with all the crowd predictions.


Like now?


Yes. NOW!!!!!


OK, here we go. What’s wrong with the 2020 Disney World crowd predictions is, they were all wrong.


Is that all?




We know that already Dad. But, why are all the 2020 crowd predictions wrong? What’s going on? Is this the new normal? Did something happen to cause this? Are you and all the other crowd predictors colluding to make us all crazy?


Ouch. That last one hurt.


My work here is done.


OK, I’ll get serious (unlikely to stay that way for long).

Typical January/February Crowds


Dad's January 2020 Disney World crowd calendars were kind of wrong . Dad's February 2020 Disney World Crowd Calendar was not all that good either

First, we probably ought to look at a normal January and February crowd pattern. What usually happens is the first few days of January are busy and then again on Marathon Weekend. Martin Luther King weekend will be moderate to heavy, but usually the other than those few days January isn’t too busy.

Dad’s January Disney World Crowds page

February crowds are much the same. Slowish except around Presidents Day Weekend which is usually pretty busy.

Dad’s February Disney World Crowds page

This year there have been more heavy days than moderate days. 2020 defies years and years of crowd patterns.



Blame it on…


No, you can’t blame it on Rio, but you can blame the wrong crowd predictions on…


The AT AT in maintenance at Rise of the Resistance

I’ve got a bad feeling about this – photo by Rich Ramos

Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance. For the last 2 years, crowds at Disney World have been down. “Wait until Toy Story Land opens”, Disney said. Toy Story opened, no crowds. “Wait until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens”. Thud. That didn’t work. Historically bad crowds.

Dad’s Rise of the Resistance page

After the Galaxy’s Edge debacle, Disney quit saying when the crowds would come back. Eighteen months of egg on your face will do that.


Starting in December, the crowds were bigger than normal. Not a lot, but noticeably bigger. OK, it’s the Christmas season. Rise of the Resistance opened on December 5th. It makes sense that the December crowds would be a little bigger with Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge all finished.

Dad’s Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge page

Then BANG! January came and everyone and their dog showed up. All because Galaxy’s Edge is now fully open and Rise of the Resistance is so awesome!

Is this a Permanent Thing?


That’s a good question. I do think that overall crowds are going to be up for the next couple of years with all the new things coming and the big 50th Anniversary next year. I don’t expect January and February to be crazy busy next year, but October will be NUTS!


I believe a normal crowd pattern will settle back in. Maybe with a few extra people, but it’s hard to mess with mother nature. US school calendars will always be the driving factor for crowds at Disney World.

Dad’s Bottom Line


Yes, Dad’s (and everyone else’s) 2020 Disney World crowd calendars for January and February were all wrong, WRONG, WRONG. I admit it. I didn’t see this coming last year in April when I made my predictions. I’m not alone.


I do think that crowds will settle down into a more normal pattern as the year progresses. I don’t think my 2020 Disney World crowd predictions will turn out to be all that bad.

For more 2020 Disney World crowds information, check out…

Dad’s Disney World Crowd Calendar page


Dad's Disney World home page



disney world parks



disney world hours



disney world crowds



Comments 3

  1. I think the people are relying heavily on the crowd calendars to plan their trips. As a result, we are seeing huge crowds on days that are predicted as low.

  2. The weather here on the eatern seaboard has been relatively quiet. Alot of rain not snow. That could be a contributing factor to crowd levels.

  3. I was at WDW from Feb. 21 – Mar 1 and there seemed to be a lot of people from Louisiana visiting. Not sure of the reasons why. Perhaps Mardi Gras had something to do with it? I don’t know. I was just shocked at how crowded it was for being February. We were expecting much lighter crowds.

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