Your Disney World crowd calendars don't agree with touringplans.com
"I am confused by your statement that you rely heavily on TouringPlans for your crowd level’s planning's but your crowd level predictions do not agree with their predictions. For example, touringplans.com still lists October as a relatively low crowd month.
In your crowd calendar, which in trying to obtain reservations, et cetera, I have found to be much more likely and reliable, thank you very much, list October as extremely busy. I canceled our October trip, October 7th through 14th in fact because your ready predictions are more in line with what I suspect to be true.
Accordingly, I no longer trust touringplan.com for traveling predictions and this less trust is bleeding into every other areas even though the unofficial guide has been my go-to planner for more than 10 years. Can you explain the differences and why TouringPlans, Undercover Tourist, et cetera is still holding on to the very traditional crowd calendars of five to 10 years ago.
How accurate is Dad's December Crowds calendar?
Well, Kim, first, let me say thank you for the kind words about our crowd calendars. That's one of the things we tried very hard to try to be accurate on. Why TouringPlans says what they say, why Undercover Tourist says what they say, I have no idea. I don't work with them on their crowd calendars. I don't talk to them about their predictions.
Now, I have have, in the past, I've worked with both TouringPlans and Undercover Tourist. I've talked to them. I know them. I have no animosity towards either one. I like both of them a whole lot. I've interviewed Len Testa of TouringPlans for WDW Magazine, talked to him several times, Mommy Frog. I used to write for her actually. I wrote several articles for Undercover Tourist years and years ago but I have no idea why they predict things the way they do.
I know TouringPlans, and this is something Len (Testa, creator of TouringPlans) and I talked about in the interview, he has a full algorithm, hundreds of data points that he uses for his crowd predictions but me, I go by experience. I go by what I see, what I hear. Now, one thing I will say is I make up my crowd predictions in April, so April of 2018, I will be making my crowd predictions for 2019 and I don't change it.
TouringPlans sent me a notice a couple of weeks ago that some of the crowd predictions for our dates had changed and they had gone up, by the way. Some of the dates for our trip, the crowd predictions had changed. They change theirs regularly.
A lot of people that make crowd predictions change theirs. I try to make my predictions and stick with them because what good does it do you to plan a trip and then, when two weeks before you go, you’d get a notice the crowds have doubled?
Now, are we all ever always right? No. I can tell you that mine aren't 100% accurate. I will say that mine are more accurate than your local weatherman. That doesn't say much, does it? I try to be as accurate as we can. I listen every day for what actually is happening.
Now as to me using TouringPlans for planning, I don't use them for my crowd predictions. I use them for my personal when I'm planning a trip. I will use TouringPlans to help me pick which park I'm going to be in. I use a lot of their tools, their room selector tool, not always but I've used it.
I like their ADR tool when you can't get an ADR. I like that tool. I've even used their plan maker tool. I use their Lines app when I'm in the park to check lines. I find it to be more accurate than Disney's lines on the My Disney Experience app.
Dad's Bottom Line
The bottom line is I can't tell you why TouringPlans and Undercover Tourist have the predictions they have. That's what they believe. What I believe, I put out there and we'll just have to see who's right. It always is just one of those. It's a prediction and things change.
The Disney crowd patterns are changing and it's kind of hard to get out of those old habits. I've even have to change some of my old habits. All right. I hope that helps.